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Old 14-Mar-2018, 19:09   #1855
Orange
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Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 12,345
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I don’t think who wins really matters one way or the other in the sense that the district disappears in November anyway. For what it’s worth I think there’s probably less than 641 votes left to count, but there could still be a recount obviously. But, I’m somewhat surprised that we’ve seen a 20pt swing away from Trump when:
- economy seems to be doing ok
- tax reform has been polling less badly than I had expected
- steel tariffs appeared to be targeted at exactly this kind of constituency
- Trump had gone all-in on Saccone
- Republicans threw money at the race
- Generic ballot polling was looking a bit better for Republicans of late

So, despite all of that, they lost 20pts. That’s really, really bad, no matter how they try to spin this.
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