Ukraine

[Wilco]

Originally Posted by Mr_Skiff

I expect flak for this but Putin is acting the only way he can given the circumstances. I've been following the Maidan protests for a while now and it doesnt take long to see who has been supporting the far right nationalists with more than just info. Anyone remember that leaked phonecall from one of the US diplomats: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26072281

The US supported the protests and I would go as far as to say they had men on the ground helping with the coordination. The new interim president Oleksandr Turchynov is pro EU\US and is about as corrupt as Viktor Yanukovych http://www.wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/06KIEV1531_a.html . In recent years Ukraine has been in trouble with debt and corruption from its pro Russian president and trouble was always going to erupt and the US are taking full advantage. They didnt orchestrate this uprising but they sure as hell helped it along, I mean they would do anything to get one over on their old enemy the Bear, especially after the Syria affair (Which Assad is going to win but thats another story: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Templat...r_detailed_map )

Putin has a gun to his head and he is not going to let a pro EU\US Ukraine undermine his military bases in the Crimea, cut off his black sea fleet at Kerch and vital pipelines travelling to Europe. Imagine if he didnt bolster his forces in the Crimea and let Ukraine cede from Russian influence, he would have an unfriendly neighbour sponsored by his rivals in the geopolitical stage. Now it sounds like I'm his comrade but I'm not, I'm just saying it as I see it.

Oleksandr Turchynov is now saying that Ukraine will not split under any circumstances and Putin will not pull his troops out as there is by far too much international prestige and security at stake. Its going to be interesting to see which way this swings but regardless of the outcome, Ukraine loses.

Well I have to disagree with you there skiff. To accuse the Americans as being the ones who've meddled in Ukrainian affairs is frankly absurd. Putin has been propping up Yanukovich for his entire time in power, from control of their gas supply to bribing "the family" to not turn towards the EU. I'm sure the Americans do have people on the ground, but not as many as the Russians do. In the beginning of the protests there were plenty of gangs of thugs going around opposing the protestors. Also the police didn't take long to start shooting people. Even if the "West" is provoking a move from the Ukraine away from Russia, only in Russian minds is that a valid reason for an invasion. If Scotland votes for independence, I don't think we're planning on annexing back Edinburgh.

Oleksandr Turchynov was elected by the Rada as interim President, but he's not exactly the puppet of the Maidan. Persons put forward as cabinet ministers by the Parliament have been "vetoed" by the protesters, but they don't have the power to choose their own appointees.

Also, in the context of a land war, Afghanistan and Iraq were comprehensive allied military victories. Their perceived "loss" is more due to the higher standards we hold ourselves to in the West (the allies in Afghanistan have done far better than the Russians in Chechnya in terms of counterinsurgency), and also our unwillingness to use severe repression as a tool for control (again, Chechnya, Dagestan). I don't think the Russians could win a conventional land war against NATO, and I highly doubt Putin believes there is a possibility of that happening.

It's all rather blown away that $50bn on the Winter Olympics though, hasn't it?

[Beef~]

To be clear that wasn't directed at any random musing here - mainly the stuff trotted out by the most of the 24hr media filler.

[Inertiaman]

By random musing I presume you mean the utter flannel suggesting that the group of countries who can't even successfully occupy Iraq should undertake an attack of some sort on Russia.

[Scrobbs]

Shaxon puts forward some reasonable theories as to why Russia does what the fuck it wants:http://www.taxjustice.net/2014/03/03...fshore-stupid/

[EvilGrin]

Originally Posted by Inertiaman

By random musing I presume you mean the utter flannel suggesting that the group of countries who can't even successfully occupy Iraq should undertake an attack of some sort on Russia.

Ah come on, it's not that bad. If GW Bush was still US President he would of at least used this as an excuse to invade New Zealand by now.

[Inertiaman]

He'd have to get someone to point it out on a map first.

[Scrobbs]

So Putin is saying something about ending 'military exercises'.

…with a footnote to add that Crimea will be joining the Russian Federation. Masterful annexation with no war!

[Ashen]

It has been quite a achievement for him if the USA tried it half the country would b rubble. Let's just hope he stops with this one and gets some naughty boy sanctions.

[Lungboy]

If the world powers roll over and give Russia the Crimea, it'll be like the Sudetenland x 2356!

[Ashen]

They have rolled over and its seems they are getting there bellys tickled whilst barking. The operation was way to swift to allow for a proper response from the international community. Military action is not needed the potential economic and political damage could very well finish Putin.
He has pissed a lot of people off and made every bordering country wary of a fight

[stepper]

And you think he gives a fuck?

[Inertiaman]

If your claims on the last page are true then I guess so.

[Rainy]

Originally Posted by stepper

And you think he gives a fuck?

He should, NATO is about to turn him to dust.



Edit: trumped by nertia

[Scrobbs]

Definitely read the article I linked earlier from Politico; for a complete layman (i.e. me) it is certainly an argument that has the ring of truth:

http://www.politico.com/magazine/sto...l#.UxQ5cmTrWmV

[stepper]

Originally Posted by Inertiaman

If your claims on the last page are true then I guess so.

No I said NATO could, but they won't, and he knows it. Hence him not giving a fuck!

NATO will reach for the biggest weapon in their arsenal when dealing with Putin - their "grave concerns."

[Inertiaman]

I echo the previous question about whatever it is that you are smoking and would kindly ask that you send me some.

[Ashen]

Nah it's the permanent hang over talking.

[Beef~]

Well it's not like someone took a picture of a confidential government document outlining the UK's position on sanctions..... Someone should be on the receiving end of a severe bollocking for such carelessness and complacency.

[Inertiaman]

Come on if we start turning down rubles we'll have to start turning down riyals and pesos and all sorts! How will anyone afford their next maserati!?

[Mr_Skiff]

Originally Posted by Wilco

Well I have to disagree with you there skiff. To accuse the Americans as being the ones who've meddled in Ukrainian affairs is frankly absurd. Putin has been propping up Yanukovich for his entire time in power, from control of their gas supply to bribing "the family" to not turn towards the EU. I'm sure the Americans do have people on the ground, but not as many as the Russians do. In the beginning of the protests there were plenty of gangs of thugs going around opposing the protestors. Also the police didn't take long to start shooting people. Even if the "West" is provoking a move from the Ukraine away from Russia, only in Russian minds is that a valid reason for an invasion. If Scotland votes for independence, I don't think we're planning on annexing back Edinburgh.

Hey Wilco, I don’t know if you read the BBC link in my previous post (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26072281) which describes in detail the leaked phone conversation where assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland is talking about who they should appoint as the interim\new Ukrainian president weeks before Yanukovych fled the coup d’etat? The BBC didn’t think this absurd nor do these other news sources:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/07/wo...aine.html?_r=1

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/0...A151QM20140207

http://www.globalresearch.ca/ukraine...ernational-law

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp...0-3f66c37a2fca

http://philosophers-stone.co.uk/word...up-in-ukraine/

I know anyone can print a news story on the Internet and claim its true but the above links are from reputable news sources (apart from the last one) the evidence of US involvement is all there. Then there is that fact about the US now sending $1 billion in aid to Ukraine, I doubt this is out of the goodness of their own hearts.

Everyone knows Yanukovych is a puppet of Putin, I was never disputing that. I was just trying to convey why Putin is acting like he is. Even now in Venesula, Thailand and many protests in the past there are state sponsored gangs doing all the dirty work. The Berkut riot police were very aggressive in their actions but were welcomed home back in Eastern Ukraine with open arms and paraded around like heroes. Not every Ukrainian supports what is going on primarily in Kiev and the western parts.

That Scotland comparison made me smile Lets pretend for a minute that we are experiencing a similar event to Ukraine here in the UK. Scotland wants to gain independence from the UK and is being backed and supported by the Russians. After ceding from the UK Scotland immediately occupies all naval bases from Edinburgh northwards, cuts off north sea oil from Britain, along with passage through the Irish, Scandinavian and north Atlantic sea. The real pressing issue is the oil pipeline that Britain has going through Scotland to its customers which is now under Scottish control. Britain would then have an unfriendly neighbour sponsored by the Russians in their backyard, Wales could possibly be next in line vying for independence backed by Russia. Would Cameron standby and watch with everyone on the world stage and do nothing?

Like I said before, I’m not supporting Putins actions but he has that metaphorical gun to his head. If he lets this slide then how would he look on the geopolitical stage, would other countries propped up by Russia be watching and taking notes, you bet.

[Nomad]

so you advocate starting with a pre-emptive welsh attack, making scotland back off. nothing to lose.

[Inertiaman]

Tactical strike on the whisky pipeline and watch the place go full mad max within about three hours.

[leady]

There are quite a few English folks in Scotland, best annex the low lands to save them

As a side note because its not really been raised yet (and to be clear I'm not being so daft as to suggest wars with major nuclear powers is a good idea) is that this recent incident does make the strategic defence review look stupid. Re-organising your defence strategy around "counterterrorism" is mental. Only major powers offer real threat so you should always look as one of the following as the opponent when working out your needs

France, Germany, Russia, china, Japan or the US

don't get me wrong I doubt we could beat any of those (well bar the surrender monkeys), but like the hedgehog, looking spikey enough can make a difference

[Eja Cool8]

Originally Posted by leady

There are quite a few English folks in Scotland, best annex the low lands to save them

As a side note because its not really been raised yet (and to be clear I'm not being so daft as to suggest wars with major nuclear powers is a good idea) is that this recent incident does make the strategic defence review look stupid. Re-organising your defence strategy around "counterterrorism" is mental. Only major powers offer real threat so you should always look as one of the following as the opponent when working out your needs

France, Germany, Russia, china, Japan or the US

don't get me wrong I doubt we could beat any of those (well bar the surrender monkeys), but like the hedgehog, looking spikey enough can make a difference

Only a fucking lunatic would consider the Conservative defence posture as anything actually relating to defence needs. The current situation is like John Knott x 10, all dogma, all arse-licking of the treasury, and bionic back-pedalling when it all goes to fuck, which it is, most assuredly, starting to do.

[Orange]

Yeah, gone are the days when the might of the British Army could stop the imperialistic tendencies of the Soviets in Afghanistan without inadvertently laying the foundations for global jihad a couple of decades later.

[Orange]

I like my Russian gas charts...

[stepper]

Russia test fire a new ICBM.. Awesome.

[Scrobbs]

Don't think it is as bad as it sounds. They haven't just decided to do that on the spur of the moment.

[Goody]

Originally Posted by Scrobbs

Don't think it is as bad as it sounds. They haven't just decided to do that on the spur of the moment.

You lie , you just know Putin has a big red button.

[eek]

Originally Posted by Scrobbs

Don't think it is as bad as it sounds. They haven't just decided to do that on the spur of the moment.

It wouldn't surprise me.