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Old 14-Feb-2018, 16:23   #961
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Fuck me what a circular argument that is Andy.
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Old 14-Feb-2018, 16:24   #962
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I don't see how. It's a non sequitur to claim Japans growth is on the back of immigration whilst concluding the Brexit vote means we'll be ceasing all immigration and/or tightening our rules far in excess of those in Japan. It's hysterical reasoning.
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Old 14-Feb-2018, 16:27   #963
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If anyone is in South Cheshire on Thursday afternoon, a French TV station (France 5) is taking over the local pub to hear your Brexit views!
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Old 14-Feb-2018, 16:31   #964
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I think the sum total of Brexit is and will be a mild impact with lots of anger on both sides across a whole spectrum of issues. People are excitable because its self inflicted rather than standard turbulence, but ultimately everything will be ok ish.

But on the specific point of immigration I suspect that the doors will never be closed to the people that the government wants. It just changes from today to say the Ozzie system, where people buy degrees to drive residency (at the moment this is fairly hidden in the UK numbers hence the debates about "including students"). C-level and MDs and professors never have real issues migrating, and most corporate plebs like myself will fine it straightforward through HR managed processes.

Now I think there is an argument that the overall atmosphere is less welcoming and hence less attractive, but you need to compare the UK to:

the US (Trump )
France (nearly far right pres)
Germany (AFD polling over 20% and growing)
Austria (actual far right)
east EU (all pretty far right)
Italy (lurching far right as we speak)
japan & china (xenophobic to an extent making all of Europe look like its run by soft hearted liberals)

so bar Belgium and the Netherlands absorbing everyone I think we will be mostly ok
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Old 14-Feb-2018, 16:38   #965
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It's not the first time you've accused France of nearly electing hitler (it didnt) or Germany of lurching to the right (It hasn't, the hard left have accrued as many new votes as the hard right). Get below the headline now and then.
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Old 14-Feb-2018, 16:44   #966
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Ok-ish? That’s really reassuring. I’m so glad.
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Old 14-Feb-2018, 16:59   #967
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well once you get past the excitement, the predictions are something like 16% in lost growth over the next 20 years, which may not be a great idea on paper but its definitely in the Ok ish territory in the realms of political decisions.
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Old 14-Feb-2018, 17:16   #968
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My guess is that most people are quite comfortable with the relatively high skilled component of migration, but don’t quite realise the extent of our dependence on low skilled foreign labour.
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Old 14-Feb-2018, 17:19   #969
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That’s not ok at all. It’s £448billion (based on current GDP which is forecast to fall again). Whilst the rest of Europe grows (Eastern and Southern Europe are growing faster than we are) you’re saying it’s perfectly fine to chuck away that amount. Incidentally, if we took the “£350m we pay in each week to the EU” it would take us 25 years to make up that £448 billion deficit.

But that’s fine because we’ll be “Okish”
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Old 14-Feb-2018, 17:30   #970
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to be completely correct you would only take the 35% of taxation from that £448bn

but yes I think as a country we take decisions every so often that swings GDP that much (predictively and in hindsight). I bet the pension triple lock must have a 20 year impact in a similar £100bn range. The non EU immigration had a 20 year impact of -£256bn on government spending alone in that 2015 study.

I'm not sure Brexit is remarkable, dumb perhaps, but par for the course
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Old 14-Feb-2018, 18:22   #971
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The triple lock’s mostly an allocation question, I doubt the net impact even comes close to that of a hard Brexit.
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Old 20-Feb-2018, 08:40   #972
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Now we’re closing the door to all that what do you think is going to be the result?
Whatever it is, it will definitely not be a dystopian chainsaw-war horrorshow, in case you were wondering where the bar’s been set.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43120277
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Old 20-Feb-2018, 08:55   #973
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Actually David fears about a "race to the bottom" in workers' rights and environmental standards are "based on the other two thirds of the planet".
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Old 20-Feb-2018, 08:58   #974
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Whatever it is, it will definitely not be a dystopian chainsaw-war horrorshow, in case you were wondering where the bar’s been set.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43120277
Hopefully we’ll get some Fallout 4 style dystopia instead, at least I’ll have the requisite training.
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Old 20-Feb-2018, 12:49   #975
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Mad Max style road wars will probably be an improvement to my daily commute to Blackburn.
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Old 21-Feb-2018, 10:17   #976
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43131446 Strong and stable PM, ladies and gentlemen. Almost 2 years now since the vote and the cabinet is finally meeting tomorrow to decide what they actually want from Brexit. Utter shambles.
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Old 21-Feb-2018, 13:14   #977
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I can't see how she keeps the peace. Just the Irish border issue alone seems irresolvable. Plus ECJ and transition period and we haven't even got into the details of trade and regulation. Makes me think that another general election can't be ruled out before March 2019. What a complete fiasco.
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Old 21-Feb-2018, 14:44   #978
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The only thing that keeps it together if the fear of Jezza and Maccers.
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Old 21-Feb-2018, 17:50   #979
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Traitor!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/...ke-transition/
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Old 21-Feb-2018, 17:57   #980
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Should be fun to watch the fall out. Well, as fun as any of this shit storm has been.
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Old 21-Feb-2018, 21:31   #981
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Can't seem to get that to work via the incognito trick.
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Old 21-Feb-2018, 21:39   #982
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Oh there’s no need, allow me to summarise the article and every article like it for you:

- Theresa May and the other decision makers have arrived at a painfully fucking obvious common sense view after months and months of pretending the EU was gong to do what we told them
- The usual crowd of ignorant fucks who are safe in the knowledge that the can cry all they like without risk of ever having to implement what they’re shouting for, are shouting
- In a couple of months time even they will concede to what’s completely fucking obvious to the rest of us, retreating back to another fictitious red line beyond which they absolutely will not move
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Old 23-Feb-2018, 14:01   #983
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Hunt says UK won't stay in customs union. Good luck sorting Northern Ireland out then.
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Old 23-Feb-2018, 14:47   #984
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I don't think Northern Ireland should be dictating Brexit outcomes
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Old 23-Feb-2018, 14:49   #985
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Well someone needs to considering our government is utterly incapable of doing it.
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Old 23-Feb-2018, 14:50   #986
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Should have thought about that beforehand then.
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Old 23-Feb-2018, 14:59   #987
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It's just not that important.
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Old 23-Feb-2018, 15:01   #988
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Maybe if you pretend it’s not an issue for long enough it’ll go away.
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Old 23-Feb-2018, 15:03   #989
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It's an issue. It'll be resolved. It won't materially dictate outcomes.
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Old 23-Feb-2018, 15:04   #990
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It’ll take more than saying “it’ll be resolved” to actually resolve it.
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