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Old 05-Mar-2014, 10:05   #91
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Russian Parliament is drafting up legislation to seize US/EU citizens and businesses assets in Russia should sanctions go ahead.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/world/1.577988
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Old 05-Mar-2014, 10:58   #92
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Jesus christ, that's a dangerous game. That might be the final nail in the coffin of Russia if they did confiscate western assets. Imagine if the EU/London grew some spines and confiscated all Russia assets across the continent? Putin would be out of office that fast his feet wouldn't touch the ground.
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Old 05-Mar-2014, 11:36   #93
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The only practical way for the West to apply real pressure on Putin is through the markets. Given how markets tend to overreact to uncertainty - a fall in the value of the rouble will bring about a "de-escalation" far quicker than any other measure.
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Old 05-Mar-2014, 11:41   #94
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Jesus christ, that's a dangerous game.
It's one he's been quite happy playing with Russian interests for ten years but I suspect more brinksmanship. Noone gains from that.
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Old 05-Mar-2014, 12:05   #95
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Can someone explain why the official line from Russia is that they don't have any military forces in Crimea? It's clearly a lie - is it for legal reasons? I can't imagine litigation is a serious issue for the Russian government and this really makes a mockery of their credibility - we know it, they know it, they know we know, and we know they know, etc.

Bring back the Iraqi Information Minister!
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Old 05-Mar-2014, 12:26   #96
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Russia hardly have a monopoly on international hyperbullshit. We didn't have soldiers in Iraq, it was a peacekeeping force. We don't torture prisoners, especially not ones that we send to Jordan on cargo flights. Etc.
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Old 05-Mar-2014, 12:38   #97
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Well the UK Government is vulnerable to legal action - hence they have to choose their language carefully. Good luck litigating the Russian Government.

There's also a continuum of plausibility - is it plausible that certain things could have happened? Claiming that 6,000 Russian soldiers standing in everything bar insignia are not, is simply not plausible.
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Old 05-Mar-2014, 12:40   #98
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The only practical way for the West to apply real pressure on Putin is through the markets. Given how markets tend to overreact to uncertainty - a fall in the value of the rouble will bring about a "de-escalation" far quicker than any other measure.
Why? Gas is sold in € and I'd guess most of the oligarchs have their assets in non-RUB holdings.
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Old 05-Mar-2014, 12:41   #99
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after the last lot of complaints, for legal reasons ryanair are still denying the jordan option
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Old 05-Mar-2014, 12:44   #100
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Putin is using the language of the west against us. He has put his already existing (around 25k) troops on the ground from the Black Sea Fleet base in Sevastapol in the Crimea for 'peacekeeping' and 'humanitarian' reasons. If you want to see the Russian spin doctors in full force just read Russia Today.

http://rt.com/news/russian-troops-crimea-ukraine-816/

On the other hand, they haven't transfered any troops across the border at all, honest.

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=287_1393605865
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=6c5_1393842249
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Old 05-Mar-2014, 12:48   #101
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Why? Gas is sold in € and I'd guess most of the oligarchs have their assets in non-RUB holdings.
I imagine that Russians are reliant on imports for a lot of things - e.g. luxuries, engineering equipment. I suspect Putin is tolerated in Russia so long as the economy is doing fine. He's reliant on a power structure - which includes oligarchs but is by no means limited to individuals with the ability to protect their assets offshore - and if these people start to panic and think they might be better off with someone less confrontational - then I would have thought this will act to either limit the scope of his actions very quickly or even to end his leadership.
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Old 05-Mar-2014, 12:52   #102
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Related to this thread, watched last night...not sure what to think.


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Old 05-Mar-2014, 12:52   #103
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Primary source of revenue for the state is gas revenues, as long as they keep coming the military will get paid.
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Old 05-Mar-2014, 12:53   #104
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Can someone explain why the official line from Russia is that they don't have any military forces in Crimea? It's clearly a lie - is it for legal reasons? I can't imagine litigation is a serious issue for the Russian government and this really makes a mockery of their credibility - we know it, they know it, they know we know, and we know they know, etc.

Bring back the Iraqi Information Minister!
A combination of doublespeak (its not a military, its a policing / protection force)

Also they are probably technically within the bounds (or close) of their existing treaty for Crimea, i.e. they don't have "illegal" occupying forces.

I'd happily try those two in court - probably lose, but they aren't completely crazy.
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Old 05-Mar-2014, 12:56   #105
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Lets face it, its just a really big advert for the new series of 24 isn't it!!
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Old 05-Mar-2014, 12:57   #106
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You can't have armed soldiers or their weapons systems off your base in another country without permission of said country. Crimea isn't a country so can't give that permission. So no, they can't, in International Law terms, do any 'peacekeeping' or 'policing'.
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Old 05-Mar-2014, 13:33   #107
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Putin can't be all *that* bad... he's been nominated for 2014 Nobel Peace Prize!
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...A231R920140304
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Old 05-Mar-2014, 14:17   #108
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It seems like they hand out that Nobel Peace Prize to the people who try to start the most wars!

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Old 05-Mar-2014, 14:23   #109
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You can't have armed soldiers or their weapons systems off your base in another country without permission of said country
Putin begs to differ also I'd guess that 15000 troops aren't barracked, i.e. they are already in the community to an extent, maybe not the weapons but shrug...

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. Crimea isn't a country so can't give that permission.
What defines a "country" is remarkably arbitrary

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So no, they can't, in International Law terms, do any 'peacekeeping' or 'policing'.
Violations of international "law" (agreements is a closer term I always feel) are determined in a court by argumentation. I don't think they'd hold up but they aren't indisputably wrong until the guns start firing at which point things are somewhat screwed.
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Old 05-Mar-2014, 14:44   #110
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What defines a "country" is remarkably arbitrary
The following is well worth a read.

http://www.burneylawfirm.com/interna...r.htm#4_States

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Violations of international "law" (agreements is a closer term I always feel) are determined in a court by argumentation. I don't think they'd hold up but they aren't indisputably wrong until the guns start firing at which point things are somewhat screwed.
All right my bad, 'treaty violation' would of been a better phrase.
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Old 05-Mar-2014, 14:49   #111
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We know they've violated a treaty - what are the consequences? Well for a start other countries are less likely to trust them in the future. Claiming that the Russian soldiers there are not, in fact, Russian soldiers doesn't make that consequence any less real. Everyone knows they're Russian soldiers, even the Russian soldiers there say they are Russian soldiers.

Am I missing something? I just don't understand why they don't admit it. They're not fooling anyone.
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Old 05-Mar-2014, 16:22   #112
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Probably for the same reason any good lawyer will tell you to never admit to a crime and force others to make the case
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Old 05-Mar-2014, 16:32   #113
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The following is well worth a read.

http://www.burneylawfirm.com/interna...r.htm#4_States

.
codified arbitrary is still arbitrary i'm afraid but this is a bit philosophical rather than useful
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Old 05-Mar-2014, 16:53   #114
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Am I missing something? I just don't understand why they don't admit it. They're not fooling anyone.
I would suggest that language is important in such a high pressure situation. You don't want 50000 people getting the wrong idea and say, blowing holes in gas pipelines.
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Old 06-Mar-2014, 09:18   #115
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Another leaked phone call between Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Paet and Labours Catherine Ashton show that the protestors have no trust in the leaders of the Maidan. Urmas then explains that all current ministers in the coalition have a “dirty past”.

1:56 – Conversation starts

2:30 – Protesters have no trust in the leaders of the Maidan and that current ministers in the coalition have a dirty past

8:20 – The same snipers killed both Police and Protesters

That last highlighted point is very interesting. Urmas says that the protesters themselves accuse the new coalition of killing both Police and protesters to escalate the situation. The coalition will not investigate further even though doctors have confirmed that the bullets pulled from the corpses of both sides have been fired from the same gun.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEgJ0oo3OA8

To back this up the Guardian have also reported on this story:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...ton-urmas-paet
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Old 06-Mar-2014, 10:27   #116
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It's not remotely interesting. That said, I don't think anyone with any sense thinks this is a revolution of the people, by the people, for the people.
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Old 06-Mar-2014, 13:28   #117
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NATO pulls out of all co-operation with Russia at staff level, is investigating prior operations involving Russia and has pledged support to the Ukraine and the new Ukraine government.

http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/opinions_107743.htm

The US has increased it's NATO led obligations in the Baltic states. It's sending 10 F-16s for patrols instead of the required 4.

http://thehill.com/blogs/defcon-hill...-15s-to-poland
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Old 06-Mar-2014, 13:30   #118
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Primary source of revenue for the state is gas revenues, as long as they keep coming the military will get paid.
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Old 06-Mar-2014, 14:44   #119
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Oil, gas and precious metals are all USD / EUR denominated.
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Old 06-Mar-2014, 14:53   #120
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Russia one of the largest oil producers on the planet.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publicat.../2241rank.html

Which reminds me, Moscow did threaten to stop using the USD as a reserve currency.

http://www.ibtimes.com/ukraine-crisi...mposed-1559238
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