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View Poll Results: Should the UK leave the EU?
Yes 15 15.63%
No 81 84.38%
Voters: 96. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 03-Feb-2016, 11:59   #61
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This is utterly brilliant:
http://order-order.com/2016/02/03/wh...at-a-red-card/
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Old 08-Feb-2016, 14:19   #62
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Cameron saying if we exit EU, we could end up with refugee camps like the one in Calais in South West England. God forbid anything happen to upset the South. He wouldn't say fuck all if he thought it could happen somewhere in the North.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a6860466.html
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Old 08-Feb-2016, 15:02   #63
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if he thought there was a chance it'd help him win the EU referendum he'd have said it to whoever would listen. It's almost (almost) hilariously cynical.
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Old 08-Feb-2016, 15:15   #64
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Have to say, if the vote was tomorrow, I think I'd be voting to leave.

Does anyone have any clear information on what being a member of the EU brings in terms of benefits?

At the moment, with my limited actual knowledge, the EU feels like something we pay a lot of money to, to be told what we can and can't do by a bunch of people who don't give a damn about us as a country, and would probably rather we leave anyway.
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Old 08-Feb-2016, 15:57   #65
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What are you comparing it to? It's impossible to identify the standalone benefits without making some assumptions around what the alternative looks like.

My personal view is that it would be incredibly damaging for business. The EU brings a lot of rules but the certainty and efficiencies of being able to operate in a similar legal and regulatory environment makes the UK an ideal location to establish a regional business. If you've got a situation where the UK is constantly doing different things to Europe (or vice versa) then we look comparatively less competitive.
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Old 08-Feb-2016, 18:00   #66
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My view (which I fully expect to be savaged ) on what would change


No change in tourist travel (it was all fine before free movement)
It will take a good couple of years to negotiate the terms of exit, this will have negative effects on the economy in this period
We would get a free trade agreement because ultimately the EU would need to spite themselves otherwise
This "free trade" would however still be subject to "straight banana" nonsense from the EU
I don't think it would impact the finance industry (IMO the logic as to why it exists now outside the EU zone will persist)
The effects on net immigration will be milder than people hope for (half already achieve access without being in the EU and all their methods will transfer)
The Spanish will get hacked off when we claim our fisheries back
Scotland might get a bit aggro - but I think the oil collapse has ruined that for a while


to my mind exit is really a principle rather than a practical - I actually think one of the main issues with EU is that we implement law as law, and the continent implement them as guidelines (or so it seems). Namely its the anglo saxon vs continental legal problem at heart.
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Old 08-Feb-2016, 18:51   #67
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to my mind exit is really a principle rather than a practical - I actually think one of the main issues with EU is that we implement law as law, and the continent implement them as guidelines (or so it seems). Namely its the anglo saxon vs continental legal problem at heart.
I'm sure you mean "British" (in the modern, full mongrel sense) instead of "Anglo-Saxon", with the Angles and the Saxons having originated in continental Europe anyway, and I doubt that tiny continental power, Germany (hey, Angles & Saxons again!) sees EU law as a mere guideline.

Farther south & east...yes, I'll grant that things are a wee bit more problematic.
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Old 08-Feb-2016, 19:36   #68
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We would get a free trade agreement because ultimately the EU would need to spite themselves otherwise
Is this because you believe that wide-ranging free trade agreements are almost certainly good for the parties concerned (which I do)? Unfortunately I think there are a lot of example where national leaders see turning down free trade agreements as a positive in itself.

I also think that their desire to punish a leaving member would be quite strong, and would last for a long time.

You point out that we implement "law as law", while others in the EU implement them as "guidelines". Presumably you're applying this to commercial practice (straight bananas), which, as you point out, we will still have to accept, and will treat law as law, so will be at the same implied disadvantage.

Or are you applying this to Human Rights laws etc? These EU statues can still be appealed all the way to the EUCHR by any individual in a member country, so I don't think they're applied that unevenly.
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Old 08-Feb-2016, 21:37   #69
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I'm sure you mean "British" (in the modern, full mongrel sense) instead of "Anglo-Saxon"
I think its referred to as Anglo saxon even if the Germans don't really follow it. Yes it is British, which is why its also the basis for the US, Oz, Cannuckland.

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Is this because you believe that wide-ranging free trade agreements are almost certainly good for the parties concerned (which I do)? Unfortunately I think there are a lot of example where national leaders see turning down free trade agreements as a positive in itself.

I also think that their desire to punish a leaving member would be quite strong, and would last for a long time.
Obviously all speculation, but yes on the basis we are a huge net trading bloc to EU with a pretty big surplus, then I think mutual benefit will win out over petty revenge (unless the French lead the discussions ). I think the powers in the EU would rather us gone given we are against everything it stands for now.

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You point out that we implement "law as law", while others in the EU implement them as "guidelines". Presumably you're applying this to commercial practice (straight bananas), which, as you point out, we will still have to accept, and will treat law as law, so will be at the same implied disadvantage.
Correct, but thats same same - ditto EU data protection laws, stupid cookie laws etc

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Or are you applying this to Human Rights laws etc? These EU statues can still be appealed all the way to the EUCHR by any individual in a member country, so I don't think they're applied that unevenly.
This I'll admit is speculation, but I think if in France they had an Abu Hamza, then he would simply be blackhooded and wake up in Lebanon. The case would get no where near the ECHR. For two weeks after the Paris attacks, the government had unlimited emergency powers to do whatever they wanted - that would never fly here or in the US.
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Old 08-Feb-2016, 21:40   #70
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Out! there isnt a single good reason to remain in.
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Old 08-Feb-2016, 21:40   #71
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I'll be voting to leave.

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Old 08-Feb-2016, 22:21   #72
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Has anyone's decision changed or swayed since they voted? I know I voted no but I do admit I'm moving slightly towards middle ground since the latest talk on changes were announced.
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Old 08-Feb-2016, 23:06   #73
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I've always been massively euro sceptic but in favour of an economic union - freedom of capital, goods and services. Ultimately as time goes on I'm increasingly convinced that (to cram this down into one position) the bloated mess we have there now just isn't worth it. I'm also not interested in its continued expansion, whether by way of further member states (Turkey and Ukraine...) or further integration with current member states.

I also think the EU would be pretty fked if the UK left, leaving Germany and an economically malaised France as the two remaining big players. We have far more clout at that table than we are currently playing for.
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Old 08-Feb-2016, 23:46   #74
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Also, what I would say is this: it ultimately boils down to whether you want to be part of a federal europe (as it absolutely will continue to expand, that is the only certainty) or whether you'd rather we retained our own independence and sovereignty.

Arguments from either side on the effects on the economy are disingenuous as frankly nobody has a clue - it's mere speculation. Just as it was with the Euro when we were considering joining that (dodged that bullet). The City is likely to remain a leader - it ain't going to go to Frankfurt and I'm not sure Dublin has the infrastructure - but nobody can guarantee that, nor can anyone guarantee that the City won't benefit immensely from its independence or be adversely affected by the same. Business leaders' positions on either side are of limited worth - they frequently give warnings on documents about reliance on forward looking statements in relation to their own companies, yet feel qualified to make such statements when it affects the wider economy. Ain't nobody got the foggiest.
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Old 09-Feb-2016, 11:39   #75
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Has anyone's decision changed or swayed since they voted? I know I voted no but I do admit I'm moving slightly towards middle ground since the latest talk on changes were announced.
I was a no, who is now probably a yes
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Old 09-Feb-2016, 11:43   #76
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Also, what I would say is this: it ultimately boils down to whether you want to be part of a federal europe (as it absolutely will continue to expand, that is the only certainty)
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Old 09-Feb-2016, 12:47   #77
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Heh, I knew it would be you that would pick up on my forward looking statement . Although the past is no indication of future performance, the historic expansion coupled with ongoing discussions with future member states (Turkey, Serbia, Ukraine etc.) and the obligation for an ever closer union (in respect of which our opt out is purely sentimental rather than of any use in practice) all point to continued expansion. The flip side of that of course is that the crises the EU has faced over the past 2 years (euro and migrant crisis) point to it looking more inwards as an institution. But that's certainly not an advertisement for staying.
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Old 09-Feb-2016, 14:10   #78
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I agree with some of your points before that but that's a false dichotomy. We are far too integrated into the European economy (and dependent on it) to paint this referendum as a simple choice between "in or out" or "sovereign state versus federal vassal". That doesn't mean to say there aren't consequences to each decision but that was a bit of a rhetorical gimmick.

Big picture, I just don't see how moving ourselves away from being able to influence one of the three (or maybe four) trading blocks will help us longer term. The risk is that we make ourselves peripheral - yeah we're doing OK now. What about in 50-years time? How attractive and competitive will we be then? How do we sustain that advantage? If the answer is putting ourselves outside of a key decision-making body for our largest cross-border market then you're going to have to convincingly explain in a lot more detail what the wider strategy should be.
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Old 09-Feb-2016, 14:24   #79
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To be fair beef, if you're looking for a wider strategy for the next 50 years to convince you to vote to leave then you're virtually entrenched. Considering we're the second or third (depending on the moment, France and us contribute similar amounts) largest net contributor to the EU it depends on your definition of "dependent" and how you see our ability to continue to trade with Europe post exit, which brings me back to the wider point that this is a clear unknown. Nobody has left the EU and nobody on either side of the argument can predict the consequences, and making arguments either way is pure speculation. There's a chance (equally as speculative) the EU could indeed collapse post our exit and in 50 years we simply won't need to worry.

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Old 09-Feb-2016, 14:59   #80
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[quote=Beef~;1333474 We are far too integrated into the European economy (and dependent on it) [/QUOTE]

utter bullshit we have a 60 Billion per year deficit with the eu.
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Old 09-Feb-2016, 15:08   #81
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Yes I think it's sensible to recgonise that "we don't know" what the exact consequences will be but for me its overwhelmingly downside risk.

I get the aspiration that we don't want to be told what to do by unelected and unaccountable institutionalised bureaucrats but frankly I'm probably a little pessimistic about how a globalised capitalist system will work in practice in the future. Just compare the power of multinationals and supranational organisations to the power held by nation states 50-years ago. The direction and pace of change has been unambiguous. Practically we should be hedging our bets and most of the arguments I've heard struggle to articulate in any sort of detail what and how we win by being in a place of less influence.
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Old 09-Feb-2016, 15:11   #82
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utter bullshit we have a 60 Billion per year deficit with the eu.
Here are the actual statistics - https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statisti...Pages/OTS.aspx - but don't let that stand in the way of pretending to call out something which isn't.

In any event, being dependent says nothing about which way the flow of trade goes.
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Old 09-Feb-2016, 15:14   #83
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It's a downside risk because you see it in the negative. I see it as a positive as I value more our ability to be more independent and less burdened by a Europe whose member states have vastly different views, aims and goals - look at the FTT and WT Regs for examples of arguably anti business measures. We have little in common with most of them and the economic union isn't enough to put up with the rest. Just like not being in the Euro hasn't dampened the City (although again we don't know that, having only had one side of the coin play out), I think the economic impacts of our exit are grossly overstated.

Besides, the EU has been trying in vain to kill the City for years.

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Old 09-Feb-2016, 15:47   #84
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Here are the actual statistics - .
on that very web site "In EU trade the UK is a net importer this month, with imports exceeding exports by 6.6 billion." and thats not removing the over inflated export valves due to the Rotterdam effect.
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Old 09-Feb-2016, 15:52   #85
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Besides, the EU has been trying in vain to kill the City for years.

on that note: http://www.citylab.com/work/2015/09/...ranking/407632
being outside the eu would seem to be a boon to the majority.
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Old 09-Feb-2016, 16:04   #86
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on that very web site "In EU trade the UK is a net importer this month, with imports exceeding exports by 6.6 billion." and thats not removing the over inflated export valves due to the Rotterdam effect.
The point was that some 40% to 50% of our cross-border import / export trade is with EU states. How you can think that we aren't integrated and dependent on that trading relationship is not clear to me.
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Old 09-Feb-2016, 16:22   #87
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The EU isn't going to want to negotiate TTIP on one hand whilst creating major trading barriers vs its closest neighbour. Even Ukraine has free trade deal and all they produce is wheat and hot women.

The trivial reaction of the market to the new current risk of exit gives a good indication of the impact, i.e. not zero, but not huge in scheme of things.

Besides the absence of the UK has a chance to cause a spate of separations as Germany has to fund the French farmers and the Dutch can't carry the rest
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Old 09-Feb-2016, 18:02   #88
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short and concise article making the brexit case http://startups.co.uk/eu-why-its-time-to-leave
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Old 09-Feb-2016, 19:30   #89
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Dingle has a reputation beyond reputeDingle has a reputation beyond reputeDingle has a reputation beyond reputeDingle has a reputation beyond reputeDingle has a reputation beyond reputeDingle has a reputation beyond reputeDingle has a reputation beyond reputeDingle has a reputation beyond reputeDingle has a reputation beyond reputeDingle has a reputation beyond reputeDingle has a reputation beyond repute
I voted no above. Pretty sure it's a yes nowadays. New poll needed!
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Old 09-Feb-2016, 19:49   #90
andy
aka milk!
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: London
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andy has a reputation beyond reputeandy has a reputation beyond reputeandy has a reputation beyond reputeandy has a reputation beyond reputeandy has a reputation beyond reputeandy has a reputation beyond reputeandy has a reputation beyond reputeandy has a reputation beyond reputeandy has a reputation beyond reputeandy has a reputation beyond reputeandy has a reputation beyond repute
Agreed. Let's reset the thing. Mods!!
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