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Old 05-Apr-2018, 14:26   #211
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To pick the first example from your list. I can't find any evidence that a Ford Mondeo has sensors that detect the drivers hands on the wheel.
Can confirm this - had a mondeo rental in jan. ditto an insignia last year. I presume it's the same system or similar and knows based on resistance perhaps. Flashed up a hud warning at first then after a little while kicked in audible alerts and the yellow flashing impact alert LED's in the dash. You weren't ignoring it and carrying on with your paperback that's all I'm saying.
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Old 05-Apr-2018, 14:29   #212
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Old 05-Apr-2018, 14:30   #213
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Can confirm this - had a mondeo rental in jan. ditto an insignia last year. I presume it's the same system or similar and knows based on resistance perhaps. Flashed up a hud warning at first then after a little while kicked in audible alerts and the yellow flashing impact alert LED's in the dash. You weren't ignoring it and carrying on with your paperback that's all I'm saying.
could you have ignored it? yes. Could you have music in your ears or loud enough to ignore it, yes. It didn't compel you to stop or grab the wheel.
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Old 05-Apr-2018, 14:36   #214
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No I couldn't and it really did.
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Old 05-Apr-2018, 14:38   #215
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are you married? That should help ignoring warnings. What did it do out of curiousity to compel you to stop? was it an automated action? how long could a tolerant person go before the warnings you mention forced the car to stop, if it did at all?
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Old 05-Apr-2018, 14:40   #216
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Good one!. Statistics =/= Facts. Good job for the opposing debate probably because the fact remains that all these Tesla deaths were doing something other than driving their cars when they carked it.
Statistics are derived facts. You can make a mistake in applying the stats and thus they are incorrect, or you can attempt to derive statistics from opinions, but in general statistics such as "Teslas have covered X miles under autopilot", or "Y number of people have died with autopilot engaged" are facts. I'll be honest I had a quick look back through the thread and couldn't see Devs quote a statistic, so I'm not sure exactly what you were referring to? It could be based on opinion.

You are correct, the people who died whilst driving their cars were doing some other than driving when they carked it. I can agree with that, as can Devs. I think we disagree on whether there is sufficient evidence to say Tesla's software is flawed or does not meet a reasonable integrity level. We possibly also disagree on whether Tesla's marketing is a significant cause in people not paying attention to the road when they otherwise would.

Your view is that people can reasonably intepret Teslas marketing around Autopilot as being that full self driving capability (or capable of traversing motorway intersections) is a current feature of their cars?

On your view of the development process on their software. I would think (With no inside knowledge) the software in the current cars was branched off from the full self-driving development tree a while ago, and has undergone increased safety testing and resilience testing for production use. Results from this will have been fed back into the main development, but it will be stable for a long time. I also believe this is how Mobile-eye and other systems are developed.

The Jalopnik article quotes the NTSB as stating there were lessons to be learned from the original crash. Yes there were, that's the point of NTSB crash investigations. They didn't state that Teslas working practices were unreasonable, that they operate a fail-fast, agile-development development environment (which I don't know that Tesla do, people seem to imply this because Facebook do/did it, and Facebook are Tesla are based in the same state?).
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Last edited by Wilco; 05-Apr-2018 at 14:44. Reason: Clarified in 4th para that I don't have special knowledge of tesla software dev practices.
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Old 05-Apr-2018, 14:55   #217
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All valid as opinion goes. Although on the matter of ability to traverse motorway intersections - if it's not desirable usage then why is the "pull indicator to automously change motorway" function still live in all cars? If it's just lane assist as tediously restated then why not disable that entirely?

Tell you what though, either way if this is a mature branch it's going to be a fun live OTA regression test.

I'm sure you read the article/report in full, but for devs benefit - The NTSB also stated that;

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Part of that, the NTSB indicated, had to do with Tesla. Tesla has repeatedly said in the past that drivers must keep their hands on the wheel and pay attention to the road if they enable Autopilot.

But Tesla could’ve taken additional steps to prevent misuse of Autopilot, which worked as designed, the NTSB said, but the feature was used in ways that weren’t intended—and that Tesla didn’t go far enough to ensure drivers remained alert. (Tesla has previously said to a separate federal regulator that it evaluated the potential for some drivers to become inattentive while using the feature.)

“Tesla allowed the driver to use the system outside of the environment for which it was designed and the system gave far too much leeway to the driver to divert his attention,” said Robert Sumwalt, the NTSB chairman.
I'm not sure why I'm still having to explain my position on that really. It's hard to avoid the conclusion (or derived fact if you prefer) that Tesla are still trying to have their cake and eat it by selling autonomy, enabling unsafe chunks of autonomy yet popping the odd message up reminding you that it's not autonomy. It's a bollocks.

More broadly, I'm all for this tech. I just don't think public roads are a suitable proving ground for an car autopilot that cannot tell the difference between a a roadside, a cliff edge, an articulated lorry or a concrete wall.
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Old 05-Apr-2018, 15:02   #218
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are you married? That should help ignoring warnings. What did it do out of curiousity to compel you to stop? was it an automated action? how long could a tolerant person go before the warnings you mention forced the car to stop, if it did at all?
It was the constantly vibrating steering wheel, flashing reflected orange warning messages dominating half the windscreen, muted radio, shrill alarm and flashing HUD/centre console warning telling me to take the wheel that did it I think. made for a fairly non-relaxing ten seconds of not driving the car.
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Old 05-Apr-2018, 15:04   #219
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In my defence I only wasn't driving the car to see what the "take the wheel" warning did if I didn't take the wheel after getting a HUD warning after a few seconds of not holding the wheel. Turns out it's that.
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Old 05-Apr-2018, 15:12   #220
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Okay, thats cool. Differing opinions, I don't think that Tesla is attempting to sell autonomous driving as a feature currently available in their cars, or that what they are offering currently in unsafe. Interested in what standard you think is suitable for testing this software before enabling it for use? Do you believe the system available on an Audi A8 is better (they use a different sensor suite rather than just cameras). I certainly have my doubts that Tesla can develop full self driving capability with only cameras, and also that they'll be able to significantly increase their feature set in the next year given the length of time it has taken them to implement more basic features since they starting their own system.
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Old 05-Apr-2018, 15:15   #221
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So it didn't compel you. You lost patience simply? So someone who could tolerate it more could ignore it and wasn't compelled to grab the wheel nor did the car stop. Hi look at the definition of compel you used.

Nobody said the autopilot could not be misused and some people could be inattentive in driving. But what difference does that make to any other car? Like I've said, autopilot is a fancy name for features other cars already have.
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Old 05-Apr-2018, 15:28   #222
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Okay, thats cool. Differing opinions, I don't think that Tesla is attempting to sell autonomous driving as a feature currently available in their cars, or that what they are offering currently in unsafe. Interested in what standard you think is suitable for testing this software before enabling it for use? Do you believe the system available on an Audi A8 is better (they use a different sensor suite rather than just cameras). I certainly have my doubts that Tesla can develop full self driving capability with only cameras, and also that they'll be able to significantly increase their feature set in the next year given the length of time it has taken them to implement more basic features since they starting their own system.
Standards - I don't know the process for product testing cars but I'd certainly like these to come out of private tests able to tell the difference between a concrete wall and thin air. Can't really elaborate further on that. I do know that Tesla have pushed more weight to the radar sensor though. They're not just relying on cameras at this point (yeah, a rainy day or some dirt could have a good go at shafting those).

Elon's Master Plan: Part Deux is worth a reread today imo;

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Autonomy

As the technology matures, all Tesla vehicles will have the hardware necessary to be fully self-driving with fail-operational capability, meaning that any given system in the car could break and your car will still drive itself safely. It is important to emphasize that refinement and validation of the software will take much longer than putting in place the cameras, radar, sonar and computing hardware.

Even once the software is highly refined and far better than the average human driver, there will still be a significant time gap, varying widely by jurisdiction, before true self-driving is approved by regulators. We expect that worldwide regulatory approval will require something on the order of 6 billion miles (10 billion km). Current fleet learning is happening at just over 3 million miles (5 million km) per day.

I should add a note here to explain why Tesla is deploying partial autonomy now, rather than waiting until some point in the future. The most important reason is that, when used correctly, it is already significantly safer than a person driving by themselves and it would therefore be morally reprehensible to delay release simply for fear of bad press or some mercantile calculation of legal liability.

According to the recently released 2015 NHTSA report, automotive fatalities increased by 8% to one death every 89 million miles. Autopilot miles will soon exceed twice that number and the system gets better every day. It would no more make sense to disable Tesla's Autopilot, as some have called for, than it would to disable autopilot in aircraft, after which our system is named.

It is also important to explain why we refer to Autopilot as "beta". This is not beta software in any normal sense of the word. Every release goes through extensive internal validation before it reaches any customers. It is called beta in order to decrease complacency and indicate that it will continue to improve (Autopilot is always off by default). Once we get to the point where Autopilot is approximately 10 times safer than the US vehicle average, the beta label will be removed.
This remains a conscious decision to test in production. It's a disruptive dev mindset to the core with almost subconscious disclaimers littered about the language. I don't doubt his morally clear self-belief but he's aggressively pushing their product into the market to force legislation. Much as I like the man I find it a highly reckless approach given the then-and-now-unknown limits of the system. Some dead (and clearly foolish) customers are the cost. The next crash might involve other road users. It's down to the individual to decide if those deaths are worth the expedited progress.
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Old 05-Apr-2018, 15:28   #223
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So it didn't compel you. You lost patience simply? So someone who could tolerate it more could ignore it and wasn't compelled to grab the wheel nor did the car stop. Hi look at the definition of compel you used.

Nobody said the autopilot could not be misused and some people could be inattentive in driving. But what difference does that make to any other car? Like I've said, autopilot is a fancy name for features other cars already have.
Fuck off devs.
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Old 05-Apr-2018, 15:32   #224
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At this point I would like to say I'm on Nersh's side here in that given his description of the warnings from the car you would not reasonably be able to ignore. it doens't need to deploy a robotic hand and slap you around the face. However these features (except the HUD messages, which a Tesla doesn't have) are also what Tesla does, Message on the dash, mute audio, audible tone etc. They do take 10s to kick in (and this limit was reduced from 30s+ after the accident which the NTSB findings were based on, uut long before that report was published), and I can't vouch for their severity versus the Insignia. To ignore them you would have to have headphones in and be studiously not looking forward (e.g. watching a film on an iPad).
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Old 05-Apr-2018, 15:37   #225
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Which of these can be disabled out of interest?

Either way, given such a smart car you could assume at the thirty second no hands alarm mark that the driver is very asleep or dying so you might as well carefully pull onto the hard shoulder, stick the hazards on and call the emergency services right? No data value in a stationary car or one with hands on the wheel though is there...
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Old 05-Apr-2018, 15:55   #226
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So the cars you rented had nothing more except a HUD? The tesla goes one step further, stops the car if constantly ignored. I still have had no response as to what makes autopilot different to cars with lane assist and AAC?
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Old 05-Apr-2018, 16:05   #227
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To me I read that and see you using their positive assertions against them. The fact that they are promising further improvements and increased capability seems to be what you re-draft into "testing in production". If they hadn't announced plans to improve the system in the future would still be saying they are testing in production, or would the lack of future development be proof what they have now is mature?

Tried to pull together some stats (just now).
Average rate of fatalities on UK Motorways (please read document yourself, depends on which numbers you combine): 600million miles per fatality. UK Govt Report
Miles driven by tesla cars: Approx 10% of miles are driven in Autopilot, Cars have covered 9billion miles globally (this is fairly wild guess extrapolating teslas numbers from July 2017). So 900million miles of autopilot driving. Electrek Article

So you'd be expecting 1.5 deaths, and there have been 2 (reported, both in the US, not sure of others around the world). So with that you'd say Autopilot was possibly slightly worse than without it, but its close. It's not offering major improvements, but its also not killing people left right and centre.
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Old 05-Apr-2018, 16:08   #228
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I just hope that there's some semblance of order by the end of 2019 which is what is seemingly increasingly likely to have tesla 3's arrive here.

The funny thing is, it would be long enough that I could have invested the 1K that I spent on the Tesla list, invested it, and be using it as a greater proportion of the eventual purchase price!
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Old 05-Apr-2018, 16:11   #229
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Which of these can be disabled out of interest?

Either way, given such a smart car you could assume at the thirty second no hands alarm mark that the driver is very asleep or dying so you might as well carefully pull onto the hard shoulder, stick the hazards on and call the emergency services right? No data value in a stationary car or one with hands on the wheel though is there...
If that was to me R.E. Tesla, you can't disable any of them that I know of.

At the time the 30s mark was to start showing warnings. If the driver has no need to put his hands on the wheel, as the car is driving well, then the fact he hasn't for 30s does not imply he is incapacitated. If the driver does not put his hands on the wheel after the warnings are sounding, the cars slows down, puts the hazards on and comes to a complete stop. I doubt it attempts to change lane.
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Old 05-Apr-2018, 16:17   #230
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To me I read that and see you using their positive assertions against them. The fact that they are promising further improvements and increased capability seems to be what you re-draft into "testing in production". If they hadn't announced plans to improve the system in the future would still be saying they are testing in production, or would the lack of future development be proof what they have now is mature?

Tried to pull together some stats (just now).
Average rate of fatalities on UK Motorways (please read document yourself, depends on which numbers you combine): 600million miles per fatality. UK Govt Report
Miles driven by tesla cars: Approx 10% of miles are driven in Autopilot, Cars have covered 9billion miles globally (this is fairly wild guess extrapolating teslas numbers from July 2017). So 900million miles of autopilot driving. Electrek Article

So you'd be expecting 1.5 deaths, and there have been 2 (reported, both in the US, not sure of others around the world). So with that you'd say Autopilot was possibly slightly worse than without it, but its close. It's not offering major improvements, but its also not killing people left right and centre.
I'll resist the temptation to expand on the relative gap between 1.5 and 2!

It's not offering improvements no, but I'm not criticising their intent. As to their methods, as above really. They're putting apparently confusing functionality on the road to gather better data to improve. I get it. It's quicker than private test conditions. It's also killed people. I don't have an equally rapid and safer option for Tesla to adopt, nor as an infrastructure architect should I be listened to if I claim to. I simply have disdain for the choice to risk customers in test of their autonomous features and disrespect for the distance they attempt to maintain from the consequences during their messaging.
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Old 05-Apr-2018, 16:18   #231
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Originally Posted by Wilco View Post
If that was to me R.E. Tesla, you can't disable any of them that I know of.

At the time the 30s mark was to start showing warnings. If the driver has no need to put his hands on the wheel, as the car is driving well, then the fact he hasn't for 30s does not imply he is incapacitated. If the driver does not put his hands on the wheel after the warnings are sounding, the cars slows down, puts the hazards on and comes to a complete stop. I doubt it attempts to change lane.
That's good to know. I'm still rather confused about why this hasn't happened in the last incident then.
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Old 05-Apr-2018, 17:53   #232
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Random autopilot swerve...
“Tesla crash in September showed similarities to fatal Mountain View accident“
http://abc7news.com/automotive/i-tea...ident/3302389/
as much as I would love to trust it, whenever I get my hands on my Model 3, I think I’ll do the driving myself!
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Old 05-Apr-2018, 18:08   #233
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Originally Posted by Inertiaman View Post
I'll resist the temptation to expand on the relative gap between 1.5 and 2!

It's not offering improvements no, but I'm not criticising their intent. As to their methods, as above really. They're putting apparently confusing functionality on the road to gather better data to improve. I get it. It's quicker than private test conditions. It's also killed people. I don't have an equally rapid and safer option for Tesla to adopt, nor as an infrastructure architect should I be listened to if I claim to. I simply have disdain for the choice to risk customers in test of their autonomous features and disrespect for the distance they attempt to maintain from the consequences during their messaging.
It's exactly the same gap as between 1.5 and 1, which is where we were at a week ago. Tesla cars weren't magically safer a week ago, we just don't have enough data to make high-accuracy conclusions on events that are so rare.

You can argue that manufacturers need to do 2 billion miles of motorway driving to prove that their system is safer than standard driving, but I don't think we will ever see self driving cars and people will stay dead.

On the matter, I don't read the data as saying they've killed people. To me just as many people have died as would have died had Tesla autopilot not existed. Different people yes, but unless there is some special reason we should have saved these 2 people over 2 (1.5) others, I don't see any difference.

To rephrase the above point, I don't think there is evidence people buying Tesla cars with autopilot are exposed to significantly more risk than buying a car from another manufacturer.

In the last incident the driver didn't touch the wheel for 6s before the accident, and so the warnings would not have kicked in at this point. Looking at the video of the guy who re-created it, the divider would have been in view for well over 6s before the accident, but the car only 'left the lane' with 4s to go.
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Old 05-Apr-2018, 18:38   #234
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Originally Posted by GroovYF View Post
Random autopilot swerve...
“Tesla crash in September showed similarities to fatal Mountain View accident“
http://abc7news.com/automotive/i-tea...ident/3302389/
as much as I would love to trust it, whenever I get my hands on my Model 3, I think I’ll do the driving myself!
I was the same. I was thinking I couldn't really trust it. However I started using it on motorways, and when using the middle lane/outer lane, it was very reliable. i was fully aware and ready to make evasive action when needed.
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Old 05-Apr-2018, 19:01   #235
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Originally Posted by Wilco View Post
It's exactly the same gap as between 1.5 and 1, which is where we were at a week ago. Tesla cars weren't magically safer a week ago, we just don't have enough data to make high-accuracy conclusions on events that are so rare.

You can argue that manufacturers need to do 2 billion miles of motorway driving to prove that their system is safer than standard driving, but I don't think we will ever see self driving cars and people will stay dead.

On the matter, I don't read the data as saying they've killed people. To me just as many people have died as would have died had Tesla autopilot not existed. Different people yes, but unless there is some special reason we should have saved these 2 people over 2 (1.5) others, I don't see any difference.

To rephrase the above point, I don't think there is evidence people buying Tesla cars with autopilot are exposed to significantly more risk than buying a car from another manufacturer.

In the last incident the driver didn't touch the wheel for 6s before the accident, and so the warnings would not have kicked in at this point. Looking at the video of the guy who re-created it, the divider would have been in view for well over 6s before the accident, but the car only 'left the lane' with 4s to go.
Hey it wasn't me touting statistics.

I'd be very cautious about standing on that six second thing as a measure of awareness given the precise language used. I'm interested to hear about the preceding minutes at a minimum as well as what type and duration of input constitutes "hands on". Fascinating stuff regardless in a period of such scrutiny over tech company trust.
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Old 05-Apr-2018, 20:50   #236
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I started using it on motorways, and when using the middle lane/outer lane, it was very reliable. i was fully aware and ready to make evasive action when needed.
So what's the fucking point of a system that you have to be constantly on edge wondering if it's going to fuck up? Just keep your hands on the wheel, feet on the pedals, drive normally, and stop fucking around with untested gadgetry on a public fucking road.

What's the end game with all this shit anyway? If they don't expect it to evolve to the point where you can climb in the back and have a kip, what's the point beyond "technological superiority" over other manufacturers, which is worth precisely fuck all except for taglines when advertising your product.
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Old 05-Apr-2018, 21:08   #237
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for now while the system is in beta, I am not one to think it will be flawless. I didnt have any problems on my 10 hours drive, and I was not even that tired from it. Theres being on edge or being attentive. My major worry was the lanes in construction areas. Nowhere near exit ramps to worry. For me it was great.
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Old 06-Apr-2018, 09:16   #238
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Old 06-Apr-2018, 09:31   #239
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Old 06-Apr-2018, 18:13   #240
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while the system is in beta
it shouldn't be on the open road in beta. with millions of other drivers a lot of whom are numpties it is a risk.
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