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Old 18-Jan-2011, 12:12   #31
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my grandparents maxed out their premium bonds, 50 here and there and sometimes bigger cheques. worked out well for them, better than crappy interest rates in a bank.

i was just hoping someone had some kinda tips they heard about, Im staying away from banks this year, worried about that. if anyone hears anything, then keep us posted....apple dropping wld be interesting.
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Old 18-Jan-2011, 18:34   #32
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Originally Posted by stepper View Post
I'd keep an eye on Apple for the next few days - Steve Jobs is on 'medical leave'

The last time that happened it wiped 2 billion dollars off the value of the company for a few months - which of course they made back pretty quickly.

Might be worth seeing if they go down significantly enough to be worth buying a few shares with the expectation of a recovery
heard about this, dont know about how much money, but heard about 7% drop last time. it already dropped a tad on monday, but nothing major.
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Old 18-Jan-2011, 18:44   #33
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I can do insider trading etc because of my job, hoho. but i'm not a spacktoid. well, not a total one.
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Old 18-Jan-2011, 21:58   #34
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heard about this, dont know about how much money, but heard about 7% drop last time. it already dropped a tad on monday, but nothing major.
Nasdaq was closed on Monday... so those drops will have been outside of the actual trading. Did open up a fair bit lower, but as expected it's bounced back up a fair bit with their results being out (and I somewhat doubt that they didn't think that one through).
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Old 18-Jan-2011, 23:00   #35
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I just stick 100 a month in a works sharesave thing.
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Old 18-Jan-2011, 23:06   #36
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Old 19-Jan-2011, 10:06   #37
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I just stick 100 a month in a works sharesave thing.
yeah, that a no lose tax efficient investment for most people. To be honest by the time you've maxed out any SAYE (if it's available to you) scheme and your ISA's each year, if you have any spare money, you should just talk to a good Finanical Adviser, or dabble a bit in things that interest you. e.g. Fundamentally all finite resource based stocks will do well in the long term, e.g mining, oils etc as the demand for gold, silver, platinum and oil will not be going down.

In the short term its a gamble to be honest, or insider trading
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Old 19-Jan-2011, 10:45   #38
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Two observations, neither of which should be construed as advice:
- premium bonds pay out 1.5% tax free. Government backed ISAs payout 2.5% tax free
- Simon-Ehrlich wager is worth reading about
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Old 19-Jan-2011, 10:45   #39
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Old 19-Jan-2011, 12:44   #40
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Commodities are seen as a good hedge against wider inflationary pressures. With RPI heading up faster than expected (c.4% in the latest states released a few days ago), poorer than expected unemployment figures, reluctance to raise interest rates in the short-term and what seems likely to be a prolonged period of weak GDP growth in developed countries: the outlook for commodities might be viewed as more optimistic than equities or bonds depending on the investment horizon.

It seems to be as much about timing. If you had made a similar wager over a five-year period ended 2006 (where many commodity prices peaked before the financial crisis) returns were 10.6% on the dow jones commodity index compared to 2.6% on the S&P 500.

Note that investing in commodity-related equities may not reflect changes in commodities prices since it will also include many other variables like the capital structure of the issuer and their exposure to significant derivative contracts (for example agreeing forward contracts where prices are fixed).
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Old 19-Jan-2011, 12:55   #41
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My only point is that commodities are not a one-way bet. Relatively straightforward to take physical exposure through ETFs on non-hydrocarbons.
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Old 19-Jan-2011, 12:57   #42
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Also, asset prices reflect both the past and expectations for the future and relative opinions matter as much as absolute opinions (ie everyone knows inflation is going up, the question is more about whether you think it's going to increase more or less than everyone else).
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Old 19-Jan-2011, 13:01   #43
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Yeah, I'd agree with that. Speaking of one-way bets, what do you think about chinese currency appreciation? Obviously we've no idea of when it might happpen so timing will be critical but with the yuan pegged to the dollar, when they do float (which has to happen at some point - the Economist forecasting China's GDP output to pass the US in 2019) surely holding assets denominated in yuan is as close as you might get to a one-way bet?
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Old 19-Jan-2011, 13:25   #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DEV^S View Post
my grandparents maxed out their premium bonds, 50 here and there and sometimes bigger cheques. worked out well for them, better than crappy interest rates in a bank.

i was just hoping someone had some kinda tips they heard about, Im staying away from banks this year, worried about that. if anyone hears anything, then keep us posted....apple dropping wld be interesting.
Peoples reports on premium bonds remind me of people who believe in psychics/mediums etc. They remember the odd payment and claim it's "all the time" when in fact they have long periods without winning anything.


http://www.moneysavingexpert.com/savings/premium-bonds

Quote:
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The value of prizes paid out is determined by an interest rate, which is currently 1.5%, though it changes, usually following a change in Bank of England UK rates.
So the "crappy" bank interest rates will always beat premium bonds.

Last edited by Blunteh; 19-Jan-2011 at 13:28.
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Old 19-Jan-2011, 15:42   #45
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surely your talking about those that have a little amount in premium bonds, the difference here being they put maximum in and get quite a bit out of it.

Also China Special Situations may be one to look into. Get the shares from fidelity and I heard that they are 8% over valued currently, which means that they will go down and over a period of 10 years or so, you could make some money.
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Old 19-Jan-2011, 15:46   #46
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Surely you haven't read the article I kindly linked for you that explains it... either that or you don't understand that the pot of prizes is based on an interest rate tied to the bank of england base rate so pretty much tied to the same mechanisms that governs other interest rates in bank accounts.

Even if you owned all of the premium bonds in the UK (therefore you win 100% of the prize fund available) you would still be better off investing your money in a bank (assuming the exchange rate you negotiated was better than that used for premium bonds, which from the sounds of that article is a given)).

Based on your apparent understanding of all of this, I would recommend you give your spare pocket money to your mum for safe keeping
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Old 19-Jan-2011, 15:54   #47
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I could have said all that, but I think 'waste of time' was a much better summary
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Old 19-Jan-2011, 16:03   #48
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that link shows the negatives of it, their prediction of how much you could win is nonsense. You could win a decent amount just one time and it would be better than a bank, and im not talking about the 1 million pounds.

Yes you could invest in shares, but for grandparents who dont take interest in that, and have the money lying around, its not bad to just see money coming in with the chance of a good pay off. this isnt my choice of makin money, but for them its great.
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Old 19-Jan-2011, 16:05   #49
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The reason people find premium bonds attractive is related to propect theory isn't it?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prospect_theory

i.e. people might not be that bothered about the difference between 1.5% and 2.5% on their savings but the small chance that they win big is enough for them to forgo the relative certainty of a 1% averaged profit differential between the two investments.
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Old 19-Jan-2011, 16:11   #50
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yeah, that. like i was saying, for them, money is coming in, and if it ends up being big, then bonus.

I actually used to have premium bonds when i was 13 or so (well through parents). I got bored with not winning and being envious of parents etc and so withdrew it. I lacked 19,000 to make it the 20,000 max at the time lol.
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Old 19-Jan-2011, 16:19   #51
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Based on your apparent understanding of all of this, I would recommend you give your spare pocket money to your mum for safe keeping.
This.
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Old 19-Jan-2011, 16:29   #52
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that link shows the negatives of it, their prediction of how much you could win is nonsense. You could win a decent amount just one time and it would be better than a bank, and im not talking about the 1 million pounds.

Yes you could invest in shares, but for grandparents who dont take interest in that, and have the money lying around, its not bad to just see money coming in with the chance of a good pay off. this isnt my choice of makin money, but for them its great.
I can only guess you still don;t understand that article.

Assuming it's accurate (I have no reason to think it isn't yet) then you might win big once in a while.. but you'll go long periods without winning..

You'll only really think about your premium bonds when you win, so you are thinking about them from a screwed perspective. Like I said, it's the same mentality as people who only notice the 5% of vaguely accurate information from a medium, while discounting the 95% of random bollocks they had to listen to to get it.

If premium bonds were a realistic way of making good money from investments then they would be overwhelmed with people buying them, they wouldn't need advertising..

You must get exhausted around April time.. what with all the lovely rainbows 'n' all..
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Old 19-Jan-2011, 16:32   #53
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The reason people find premium bonds attractive is related to propect theory isn't it?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prospect_theory

i.e. people might not be that bothered about the difference between 1.5% and 2.5% on their savings but the small chance that they win big is enough for them to forgo the relative certainty of a 1% averaged profit differential between the two investments.
Not in my opinion.. Old people like them as it's a way of gambling and only loosing a little bit of money (inflation). They don't think too much about the inflation so they think they are gambling for free...

It's basically scratch cards/lotto for the middle classed housewives, the elderly and their grandchildren (who get them as birthday pressies and loose them amongst their bank statements in their 20s).
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Old 19-Jan-2011, 17:39   #54
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I don't disagree with that conclusion, but people do value utility (and risk) in different ways - people tending to value a significant gain / loss at different rates to how they value small gains and losses.

Is it rational? Perhaps not, but then it is also an observable fact supported by empirical evidence.
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Old 19-Jan-2011, 18:17   #55
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Two observations, neither of which should be construed as advice:
- premium bonds pay out 1.5% tax free. Government backed ISAs payout 2.5% tax free
- Simon-Ehrlich wager is worth reading about
I should have said well managed resource based stocks..I didn't actually mean commodities themselves but stocks such as RTZ. hmm can you get comparison of RTZ share price v ftse400/dowjones/gilts from 1980 to 1990?
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Old 19-Jan-2011, 18:20   #56
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This thread is all kinds of retarded ;{
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Old 19-Jan-2011, 18:21   #57
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I think that if your looking into investments, its not the way to go to make money.

If you are just as blunteh said trying to "gamble for free" with the chance of winning, its not bad for someone with money lying around and dont care to follow the market. IF Premium Bonds were not worth it, im sure a lot more people would have known about this and not bothered.
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Old 19-Jan-2011, 18:30   #58
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I don't disagree with that conclusion, but people do value utility (and risk) in different ways - people tending to value a significant gain / loss at different rates to how they value small gains and losses.

Is it rational? Perhaps not, but then it is also an observable fact supported by empirical evidence.
I don't disagree I understand how it works just think it's daft....
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Old 19-Jan-2011, 19:48   #59
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the concept of trading might look daft but if you're smart and you know what you're doing you can make an absolute wankbucket of cash out of it though. after only a few months of working in this industry though, some methods of trading just seem absolutely ridiculous to me, particularly futures trading. that's absolute fucking madness.
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Old 19-Jan-2011, 20:41   #60
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half of what u guys said made no sense to me anyway. futures trading?!? will look it up.
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