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Old 11-Oct-2017, 11:28   #301
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^
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Old 11-Oct-2017, 11:30   #302
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I wouldn't buy in London... but then I've predicted 5 of the last 2 house price contractions
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Old 11-Oct-2017, 11:32   #303
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This one has the benefit of being well under way.
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Old 11-Oct-2017, 11:33   #304
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Im with you but I vaguely remember all this talk back in 2003
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Old 11-Oct-2017, 11:36   #305
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There is no shortage of sellers willing to take someone up on that view.
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Old 11-Oct-2017, 11:44   #306
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Yeah I'm already vested unfortunately! BLT market is dead in London for the foreseeable and there'll likely be price reductions; save a 90s style interest rate hike or fundamental planning reform I can't see the bottom falling out in the short to medium term.
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Old 11-Oct-2017, 11:45   #307
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Or a lot of highly paid banking executives leaving the country.
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Old 11-Oct-2017, 11:45   #308
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Overplayed
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Old 11-Oct-2017, 11:49   #309
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It’s really, really not.
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Old 11-Oct-2017, 11:54   #310
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More of a London issue, no? Commuter belts are doing alright?
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Old 11-Oct-2017, 11:56   #311
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Everything ripples.
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Old 11-Oct-2017, 11:56   #312
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@Orange: let's see. At least as a homeowner in London I have some skin in the game
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Old 11-Oct-2017, 11:58   #313
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BLT market is dead in London for the foreseeable
Damn these southern veggie types!
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Old 11-Oct-2017, 12:01   #314
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good spot
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Old 11-Oct-2017, 12:02   #315
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https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FOXT.L?ql=1&p=FOXT.L

Everything is fine.
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Old 11-Oct-2017, 13:24   #316
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I genuinely have no regrets with how I voted, notwithstanding your disdain. In that sense I "own it". My attacks on Labour are not linked to Brexit solely but rather how utterly awful they are; it's particularly worth highlighting that in the context of criticism of the status quo.
It's not disdain for your position, you're welcome to it as are we all. The mystery I can't reconcile is why anyone with a brain and two eyes continues to encourage hard Brexit towards the promised land when all evidence indicates the promised land is a four way fuck party with the US, EU and China having all the fun whilst our involvement appears most comparable to that of the jizz rag. Where's the turnaround predicted to occur? What are the metrics for that improvement. This is not opinion baiting. This is a genuine plea for hard, reasoned answers that for the life of me I cannot seem to find.

I appreciate this reply is a little late and we've all moved onto how much bricks cost. Turns out it's too much. Who knew.
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Old 11-Oct-2017, 14:06   #317
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one imagines that many people will happily make the 10% GDP loss trade, particularly those who don't see the effects, namely the white working class competing for lower skilled work and pensioners. The direct effects of labour competition on the former and the absence of economic concerns of the latter mean they won't care.

Hell I imagine you'd get a majority to agree with "Would you trade 10% of the countries GDP in 10 years time for lower immigration"
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Old 11-Oct-2017, 14:43   #318
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I don't think many voters understand GDP, inflation, currency exchange, stock markets, tax, government spending, etc. - The whole immigration argument always feels like a way for people to have a scapegoat and a unearned superiority complex.
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Old 11-Oct-2017, 14:50   #319
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almost close to zero statistically I imagine.

immigration isn't a scapegoat to the Plummer whose rates have been savaged or the old woman who deals with a massive over representation of immigrants in front line services. In a lot of ways the British hospital porter has a finer sense of the economic reality as it pertains to himself than the economics professor desperately trying to show that supply and demand magically doesn't apply to labour rates
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Old 11-Oct-2017, 14:59   #320
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The British hospital porter is almost certainly an immigrant - bad example surely ? (based on anecdotal hospital experience, not research)

Also I think it's a lot to do with the way the human brain works... you can hear 1000 people talking English and not notice them, hear 3 Eastern Europeans in a day and you think you're being overrun by Slavs. Human perception is very selective, if immigrants bug you you'll notice them more

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Old 11-Oct-2017, 15:00   #321
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one imagines that many people will happily make the 10% GDP loss trade, particularly those who don't see the effects, namely the white working class competing for lower skilled work and pensioners. The direct effects of labour competition on the former and the absence of economic concerns of the latter mean they won't care.

Hell I imagine you'd get a majority to agree with "Would you trade 10% of the countries GDP in 10 years time for lower immigration"
A 10% loss in GDP will be devastating for this country.
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Old 11-Oct-2017, 15:07   #322
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+ to the people who hate immigrants, they'll still be too many immigrants. Just with even more stressed services due to low tax collection, stress related illness, rising crime due to lowering living standards, etc. etc. etc.
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Old 11-Oct-2017, 15:19   #323
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The British hospital porter is almost certainly an immigrant - bad example surely ? (based on anecdotal hospital experience, not research)
Well exactly on the hospital porter example, which is kind of why I chose it as a fixed scale job pool that is overwhelming immigrant based. From which I infer that the wages of that role (and the opportunity for getting the job in the first place) are suppressed, which I imagine the British nationals understand on a simplistic but likely accurate basis.

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Also I think it's a lot to do with the way the human brain works... you can hear 1000 people talking English and not notice them, hear 3 Eastern Europeans in a day and you think you're being overrun by Slavs. Human perception is very selective, if immigrants bug you you'll notice them more
Some of this, but I also think that whilst for example a typical town has say 5% of A8 migrant population, they are more like 20% of "active / working" demographics. That is they staff the local shop, they are the porters, the cleaning staff, they are the mothers in the street etc.

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A 10% loss in GDP will be devastating for this country.
But will anyone really notice the non-gain that economists talk about though? Hell does anyone perceive the difference between compounded 1% grow vs 1.5% - pretty sure the answer is no. In any event all that GDP loss is taken by people like me (us). To the average unskilled labourer or semi-skilled worker will they really see it? Sure if they are in specific export industries they will see the direct effects on company closure, but will someone working on the tills in Tesco and is that outweighed by the job and wage competition?
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Old 11-Oct-2017, 15:37   #324
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From which I infer that the wages of that role (and the opportunity for getting the job in the first place) are suppressed
Aren't Porters NHS staff, so any wage suppression is surely down to the government, not how many migrants are doing the job?
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Old 11-Oct-2017, 15:41   #325
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A drop that much (and the devaluation of the pound that will go along with it) will mean wages are frozen/cut and prices of everyday goods will go up. For those with the more menial jobs (a Tesco cashier, using your example) will certainly see it more than those being paid more in higher skilled jobs.

Don't even get me started on those on benefits who voted for Brexit after their benefits are also cut/frozen and then have the same problem.

Don't let basic economics get in the way or your opinion though.
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Old 11-Oct-2017, 15:48   #326
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What chuffing plumbers have seen their rate reduced???? None of those I've used and we have a huge shortage of plumbers (and most other trades), they have seen earnings skyrocket!!
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Old 11-Oct-2017, 15:48   #327
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Again, let's not let facts get in the way of steaming piles of made up bullshit.
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Old 11-Oct-2017, 16:01   #328
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Aren't Porters NHS staff, so any wage suppression is surely down to the government, not how many migrants are doing the job?
The government isn't any more immune to the overall effect than other entities though they can suppress it a lot more (or cheat entirely by strip mining nurses from other countries).

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A drop that much (and the devaluation of the pound that will go along with it) will mean wages are frozen/cut and prices of everyday goods will go up. For those with the more menial jobs (a Tesco cashier, using your example) will certainly see it more than those being paid more in higher skilled jobs.
People rarely "see" inflation generally unless its 10%+, plus the devaluation is a one off spike. Even then given that GDP creation is highly unequal in the UK (pareto as usual) it impossible for them to cover the hit.

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Don't even get me started on those on benefits who voted for Brexit after their benefits are also cut/frozen and then have the same problem.
They probably suspect that they will now have the ability to take a low skilled job that previously would have gone to an immigration at a higher wage. On the face it that is not a perspective without merit.

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Don't let basic economics get in the way or your opinion though.
if only economics was "basic" enough to be predictable to the personal level, the whole discussion would be moot. In any event I'm presenting the typical "working class British chap" view on the world and from their perspective I think it has more merit than you want to credit.
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Old 11-Oct-2017, 16:23   #329
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Yeah the conversation is about moving past the sort of chat I can get in the back of a minicab and trying to actually define what constitutes success and our chances of seeing it.

The fact that you can't offer much more than the opinion of an entirely fictional "working class british chap" but insist on doing so when prompted for reality is fairly symptomatic of the entire issue.
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Old 11-Oct-2017, 16:49   #330
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The fact you won't recognise that to said not particularly fictional chap that almost anything that reduces competitive low skilled immigration is in his immediate interests is why you can't understand Brexit and its paradoxical ongoing support amongst a range of demographics

Ah well.
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