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Old 23-Jun-2017, 10:57   #1
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Brexit.

Just wondering with it being a year since the result of the referendum was announced, is there anyone on here who would change their vote after the last twelve months we've just had?
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Old 23-Jun-2017, 11:02   #2
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Nope, I'm even more convinced it's going to be a massive clusterfuck.
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Old 23-Jun-2017, 11:09   #3
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^ This
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Old 23-Jun-2017, 12:01   #4
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Good question. No.
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Old 23-Jun-2017, 12:10   #5
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Nope. History tells us that confederations always eventually fail. The Eurozone has failed to do any meaningful structural reform leading to further fiscal and political integration. Meaning the next economic crisis that comes along will hit it harder and deeper and likely cause it to fall apart. Marcon is making the right noises but I doubt the Germans will listen until it is too late.

We also still have political question marks in the southern periphery. Places like Italy that could decide to throw a Eurozone membership referendum. If public in Italy vote to come out for example, all those Euros will flood into German Banks forcing it to erect capital controls. At which point it is all over.

Brexit is a picnic compared to a collapse of the Eurozone.
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Old 23-Jun-2017, 12:18   #6
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I'm with Lungers but I'd like to hear whether andy has changed his confidence in a successful Brexit. I'd also like to know what leady would say if he could leave the nonsense off for a bit but I doubt he'll change the habit of a lifetime (or at least the last 14 years).
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Old 23-Jun-2017, 12:25   #7
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Nope, I'm even more convinced it's going to be a massive clusterfuck.
^^^^ this
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Old 23-Jun-2017, 12:26   #8
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Nope. History tells us that confederations always eventually fail. The Eurozone has failed to do any meaningful structural reform leading to further fiscal and political integration. Meaning the next economic crisis that comes along will hit it harder and deeper and likely cause it to fall apart. Marcon is making the right noises but I doubt the Germans will listen until it is too late.

We also still have political question marks in the southern periphery. Places like Italy that could decide to throw a Eurozone membership referendum. If public in Italy vote to come out for example, all those Euros will flood into German Banks forcing it to erect capital controls. At which point it is all over.

Brexit is a picnic compared to a collapse of the Eurozone.
Did you vote leave due to the above concerns? While I don't disagree that there are problems that the Eurozone faces, we were not part of the Eurozone so I'm not sure what risks of that failure a Brexit at this point removes for us. As for your statement on confederations, the States seem to be doing alright since the late 18th century, I also think a statement like 'confederations always fail' is similar to 'everyone eventually dies'.. a truism but not a massively helpful one. If it fails in 1000 years your statement remains true but what do you get out of those 1000 years is what needs to be asked.
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Old 23-Jun-2017, 12:32   #9
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The impending collapse of the Confederation of American States being a case in point.
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Old 23-Jun-2017, 12:36   #10
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Separation of the German regions is also surely only a matter of time, but may be beaten to it by the establishment of the People's Republic of London.
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Old 23-Jun-2017, 12:43   #11
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Did you vote leave due to the above concerns?
Not just those concerns. But in part yes. Some of my fears have been allayed though. It was somewhat gratifying to see that only 25% of the French voting public thought having a Fascist President was a good idea. Along with the far right generally not doing so well as was feared in the various national elections. I don't think we're in for a repeat of the 1930's any more, this is something new.

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While I don't disagree that there are problems that the Eurozone faces, we were not part of the Eurozone so I'm not sure what risks of that failure a Brexit at this point removes for us.
I think a failure of the of the Euro project would put a serious hole below the waterline of the EU and cause a serious political crisis on the continent for all involved in the EU project as a whole. Now while some people think that we could simply ignore this and hope they sort themselves out due to our moat it hasn't worked out like that in the past. We'd get sucked into the chaos at some point regardless of Brexit.

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As for your statement on confederations, the States seem to be doing alright since the late 18th century, I also think a statement like 'confederations always fail' is similar to 'everyone eventually dies'.. a truism but not a massively helpful one. If it fails in 1000 years your statement remains true but what do you get out of those 1000 years is what needs to be asked.
The confeduration lasted for 20 years before they decided that this was a terrible idea and replaced it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Articles_of_Confederation

The EU has been in limbo land for over 40 years. So points for effort, but as I said, history says it is unsustainable.
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Old 23-Jun-2017, 13:18   #12
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The United States is still a confederation.
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Old 23-Jun-2017, 13:30   #13
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I'm with Lungers but I'd like to hear whether andy has changed his confidence in a successful Brexit. I'd also like to know what leady would say if he could leave the nonsense off for a bit but I doubt he'll change the habit of a lifetime (or at least the last 14 years).
I still say the same, ie i wasnt pro it because frankly i always go with my best financial interests

But in terms of the process etc, its all fascinating and it horrified all the right people so i get value back that way

Overall everything will be fine, just maybe not so fine as it could have been (though the unified eurozone budget stuff is scary)

If i guessed at a deal i still think it will be something we pay more for bordet control and loss of influence
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Old 23-Jun-2017, 13:40   #14
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The United States is still a confederation.
No, after the resolution of the American war of independance the United States ceased to be a confederation and was fully federalised.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Articl...nd_replacement

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In May 1786, Charles Pinckney of South Carolina proposed that Congress revise the Articles of Confederation. Recommended changes included granting Congress power over foreign and domestic commerce, and providing means for Congress to collect money from state treasuries. Unanimous approval was necessary to make the alterations, however, and Congress failed to reach a consensus. The weakness of the Articles in establishing an effective unifying government was underscored by the threat of internal conflict both within and between the states, especially after Shays' Rebellion threatened to topple the state government of Massachusetts.
This step is one the EU hasn't made.
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Old 23-Jun-2017, 13:56   #15
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I voted for Brexit and stand by it.

With no centralised budgeting it's a failed experiment and it's plodding along broken and unsustainable.

I'd still vote yes for all in on a United States of Europe, and all in on a United States of any country in the world that wants in.

It seems to me to be common sense that, if a country is in financial crises, when you have free movement of people those who can will flock to countries with jobs. This leaves the elderly, disabled and less skilled behind, dragging the economy down further, and making welfare more important. You then have no skilled labour to feed the welfare budget, and you're fucked. It's compensated for with loans against the local country only, that as you've lost your skilled people are going to take forever to pay back, if they ever can be. The only countries that win are those that are very poor to begin with (who are bought up to average wealth and not above), or those that are wealthy with lots of highly skilled manufacturing. Everyone else is at best plodding along, at worst, waiting for their collapse.
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Old 23-Jun-2017, 13:56   #16
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the establishment of the People's Republic of London.
Passport to Pimlico?
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Old 23-Jun-2017, 14:47   #17
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No idea what anyone sane would try and confer fact from such unrecognisable, limited precedents as previous federated state attempts.
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Old 23-Jun-2017, 14:57   #18
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argumentum ad hominem
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Old 23-Jun-2017, 15:15   #19
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I just mean that it's impossible to conclude anything other than the broadest of broad strokes. Attempting to match history to the current EU in any kind of detail is surely a fools errand?
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Old 23-Jun-2017, 15:37   #20
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Well there's never been an EU before so this is speculation I grant you that. But I do feel history is a good teacher and I don't think the comparison to the early USA prior to its reformation as a federal republic is wrong. In fact I suspect the EU has learnt from the USA experience and it did not make many of the same mistakes. It has a central executive, a central court system, it negotiates trade treaties, sanctions, etc. All of these things caused issues for the USA confederation. However because there is no central fiscal budget, no tax and spend, no redistribution between the nation states involved there are huge monetary stresses put on the Eurozone. This is one of the mistakes the USA made and fixed by federalising and it's one the EU needs to too.

In fact, I would fully support EU membership if they did federalise. I'd even support joining the Eurozone. It would be mad not to at that point, unless we really wanted to be Cuba.
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Old 23-Jun-2017, 15:45   #21
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I really struggle to see the comparison. The fundamental circumstances are so different I can't see how you can reliably say one way or another.

What is abundantly clear is that the government has no plan whatsoever and I'm frankly amazed that people are sticking to their guns having witnessed the omnishambles-shitshow of the last year. If the prominent leavers then were to say in public now what they were spouting last year - they would rightly be called deranged.
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Old 23-Jun-2017, 16:23   #22
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Same stance as before. Leaving the EU is a massive step backwards IMHO. So what if millions want to come and live a life here, I know I would if I had to live in what they do. We've no right to say no, that this is our country so fuck off. We're all immigrants if you go back far enough.
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Old 23-Jun-2017, 17:02   #23
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There is redistribution, that's the entire point of the EDF.
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Old 23-Jun-2017, 20:19   #24
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Nope. Still think that whilst the EU had it's faults, we were better off in it.
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Old 23-Jun-2017, 20:52   #25
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Absolutely massive folly to believe we can negotiate anywhere near as good trade links as we have now after exiting the EU, this will leave us at the mercy of larger trading blocs, consumer protections, environmental protections, agricultural protections will be weakened to get any trade deal possible.

The Tories should be absolutely shitting it, they won't be able blame their economic mismanagment on the EU or immigrants anymore.
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Old 23-Jun-2017, 21:08   #26
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thanks for wiping ~20% of the value of the pound Brexiteers! Still in all this time, not heard a valid argument as to why people voted brexit. oh, except "immigration" and having control of our own laws, which when questioned, which law they're unhappy about....ermmmmm.
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Old 23-Jun-2017, 21:39   #27
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Old 23-Jun-2017, 21:48   #28
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thanks for wiping ~20% of the value of the pound Brexiteers! Still in all this time, not heard a valid argument as to why people voted brexit. oh, except "immigration" and having control of our own laws, which when questioned, which law they're unhappy about....ermmmmm.
Andy I've changed my mind can you put in a good word ?

Actually shit trump..
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Old 23-Jun-2017, 23:05   #29
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It's all good theresa maybe has asked for a situation in which EU cits can move freely in the UK and UK cits can move freely in the EU. Personally I think that's a capital idea and hope those fatcats in Brussels see sense.
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what you say doesn't count for shit because you rely on quotes from websites that are obviously biased
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Old 06-Jul-2017, 10:10   #30
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Solid gold:

https://www.ft.com/content/0ad8d316-...7-502f7ee26895

Headline is "Epithets surely apply the other way round" for non-subscribers.
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